Posted on 11/05/25
| News Source: Maryland Matters
Annapolis, MD - Nov. 5, 2025 - Fewer than 50% of registered Maryland voters said they would support Gov. Wes Moore (D) if the election were held today, according to a poll released Wednesday.
But that’s actually a good baseline for Moore for an election that’s still a year away, said Mileah Kromer, director of the poll produced for the Institute of Politics at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County.
“I was the most interested, this far out from the election, in what Wes Moore’s vote share right now is, because there’s no Republican candidate nominee and Wes Moore is obviously going to be the nominee for the Democratic Party,” Kromer said. “So, it’s Wes Moore versus generic Republican versus generic other candidates. I think the more important thing is he’s sitting at almost 50% of the electorate right now.”
The poll found 49% of those surveyed said they would support Moore. Nearly three-in-10 voters said they would support a generic Republican candidate. Twelve percent said they would pick “some other candidate,” and 10% said they were undecided.
The UMBC poll surveyed 810 Maryland adults, who included 757 registered voters. The poll, conducted Oct. 21-25, has an overall margin of error of 3.4%. The margin of error among registered voters is 3.5%.
The bulk of Moore’s support comes from voters in his own party. More than three-quarters of registered Democrats said they would vote for Moore.
On the Republican side, just 7% said they would consider crossing party lines to vote for Moore.
In Maryland, registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by a 2-1 margin.
Unaffiliated voters were evenly split on Moore. A year out from the 2026 election, 31% said they would vote for the incumbent. An identical number of voters said they would support a Republican candidate, while 18% said they would vote for someone else and 20% were undecided.
The split is another sign of how Moore struggles with unaffiliated voters.
Kromer released the first part one of her poll Tuesday. Data in that release showed Moore has lost support among unaffiliated voters since the institute’s inaugural poll in October 2024.
In Tuesday’s release, 56% of unaffiliated voters disapproved of Moore’s job performance, compared to 46% in the university’s October 2024 survey. It is the second consecutive poll showing an increase in dissatisfied unaffiliated voters.
There are nearly 1 million unaffiliated voters in the state, almost as many as there are registered Republicans.
When it comes to who should control Congress, the survey broke down along party lines.
Nearly two-thirds of those responding said they want the Democratic Party to win control in November. About 32% said they favored Republican control. Seven percent said they had no preference.
Those results are nearly identical to the institute’s October 2024 poll which asked about control of the U.S. Senate.
“It’s exactly what you could expect,” Kromer said. “It definitely speaks to our very polarized nature of politics. It’s just another piece of evidence.”
Most of the voters — 63% — surveyed said they vote in every election without exception. About 31% said they vote in almost every election.
The poll, citing state board of elections figures, noted that “just under half of registered voters cast a ballot in the 2022 midterm elections.”
The survey also asked voters why they vote as they do.
Half of voters said they were unlikely to vote for a candidate of a party different from their own. Forty-six percent said they would cross party lines to vote for a candidate.
And when it comes to motivations, 52% of voters said they cast a ballot to support a candidate they like. Nearly one-in-five people responding said they cast a ballot mostly to oppose a candidate they dislike. Twenty-seven percent said they are motivated by a little of each.
“I personally thought it was a very interesting idea: When you go to the ballot box in Maryland, do you vote because you really like the candidate — like your candidate — or do you go to vote against the other guy or gal?” Kromer asked.
“And so, 52% of voters say they cast their ballot to mostly to support a candidate they like,” she said. Marylanders are voting because they like the people they are voting for, not to keep the people they don’t like out of office — at least at this juncture.”
While Maryland voters said they would prefer to see Democrats control Congress, they expressed a lot of cynicism and distrust.
Those surveyed were asked which party they trusted, health care and public education were the only two issues in which either party received majority support. In both cases, more than 50% of those surveyed said they trusted the Democratic Party.
Democrats received a slight edge on the state budget and immigration.
When it comes to crime and public safety, 39% of those who responded said they trusted Republicans compared to 38% who said Democrats.
Those same respondents found both parties wanting when asked how well a series of traits describes the Democratic and Republican Parties.
“I would care about this … if I was a member of a political party and an elected official. I would want to increase these numbers,” Kromer said. “I would not want only 46% of Marylanders to say the Democrats care about ordinary people. Only 22% say that about the Republicans. Like you would want those numbers to get higher. Period.
“Those are the numbers …yeah, Democrats are up. They’re doing much better that Republicans, but everybody could do better,” she said.
When it comes to “getting things done,” 27% of those surveyed highly ranked the Democratic Party compared to 21% who said Republicans
Nearly identical percentages said both parties “keep promises.”
“I don’t think anybody should be particularly surprised by the cynicism over things like getting things done,” Kromer said. “We’re more than a month into a government shutdown.”