Posted on 08/01/24
| News Source: Arutz-7
Colonel Richard Kemp, the former commander of the British military forces in Afghanistan, spoke to Israel National News - Arutz Sheva today about the assassinations of Hezbollah leader Fuad Shukr in a Beirut suburb and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran this week.
Col. Kemp called the assassinations "very significant," because they show "Iran, Hezbollah and the other terrorists ranged against Israel that Israel can strike them whenever and wherever it chooses. This is particularly significant in Tehran which is heavily protected with advanced Russian air defence systems."
He explained why, in his opinion, Israel claimed responsibility for the assassination of Shukr but not for the assassination of Haniyeh. "Israel had to declare responsibility for Shukr to prove its readiness to retaliate against those directly responsible for murdering Israelis. That is why Israel took responsibility for the attack on Hudaydah port in Yemen after the Houthi drone strike on Tel Aviv. But generally Israeli policy is not to comment on international operations. This can add to the confusion among Israel’s enemies and sometimes allow them to save face by not retaliating. In this case the timing and circumstances of the killing of Haniyeh does not allow that and Iran is likely to feel obliged to retaliate in some way."
Col. Kemp dismissed claims that Israel is causing an unnecessary escalation of the conflict with these assassinations. "It is not Israel that is escalating. Iran and its proxies started this war and the most recent major escalation came from Hezbollah in its murder of 12 Druze children. In this region restraint is provocation and encourages greater violence. The Israeli leadership understands the dynamics even though most Western leaders do not. They know that Israel’s survival has always depended on hard military power and the courage to use it when needed."
"The killing of Haniyeh may damage the hostage negotiations but where were they going anyway with Hamas’s intransigence and unacceptable demands?" he said. "On the other hand military pressure has in the past succeeded in getting hostages released. Hamas is in its knees now and it may be that the elimination of their top negotiator will force his replacements to be more reasonable."
When asked about the lack of response from the US to the assassination of Shukr, who was responsible for the murder of 241 American servicemen in a terrorist bombing in Beirut in 1963, Kemp stated that "the White House is acting as though it’s walking on nettles, afraid to exert itself even in this dangerous situation. Timorous US policies, still prioritising appeasement of Iran, have contributed to the instability we see in the Middle East today. However at least they are sending more warships to the region to deter Iran and its proxies and hopefully will if necessary again join Israel’s defence as they did on 14th April."
The Colonel stated that despite the losses Hamas has suffered in the last 10 months of war, the terrorist organization will quickly be able to replace Haniyeh and Mohammed Deif, the Commander of Hamas' Military Wing who, the IDF confirmed today, was eliminated in an airstike in Khan Yunis on July 13.
"But," he said, "the killings will have done major damage to Hamas and Hezbollah, both of which have sustained severe loss to their leadership since the war began. Haniyeh and Shukr have both been involved in their respective terrorist groups for decades and their internal and international networks will not be easily replaced. The IRGC Quds Force has not yet recovered from the killing of their leader Qassem Soleimani four years ago."
When asked what response Israel can expect from Iran and Hezbollah following these assassinations, he stated that "We will have to see how Iran and Hezbollah respond. They might again launch attacks from Iran and Lebanon, and perhaps bring into play their proxies in Yemen, Syria, Iraq and the West Bank. Hamas in Gaza is so badly degraded it’s unlikely to be able to make any serious contribution. Israel knew the risks of the various retaliatory options before they launched strikes on Tehran and Beirut and so are well prepared to defend the population and strike back even harder."
The US government had a $5 million bounty on the head of Fuad Shukr for his role in the 1983 Beirut barracks bombing. Now that he has been killed, Col. Kemp said that this bounty "should be paid by the US to the families of Shukr’s victims in Majdal Shams."