Posted on 04/15/24
| News Source: FOX45
Baltimore, MD - Apr. 15, 2024 - Councilman Zeke Cohen is pulling away as the leader in the Baltimore City Council President Democratic primary and leads incumbent Nick Mosby by double digits, according to the latest poll on behalf of FOX45 News, The Baltimore Sun, and the University of Baltimore.
Cohen, who currently represents District 1, has 40% of the vote among likely Democratic candidates, the poll revealed. Mosby, who is seeking his second term as the leader of the Baltimore City Council, has 21% of the vote, while former Councilwoman Shannon Sneed has 17% support. 19% of voters said they remain undecided.
Mosby announced his decision to run for a second term immediately following an exclusive interview with FOX45 News where he addressed several controversies raised during his ex-wife’s federal mortgage fraud trial. Mosby testified as witness on behalf of his ex-wife, former City State’s Attorney Marilyn Mosby, during the mortgage fraud trial in January.
While on the stand, Nick Mosby admitted to lying to the public regarding his tax troubles that led to a federal tax lien that was placed on his Baltimore home he shared with his then-wife and two children. Federal prosecutors also claimed Nick Mosby “repeatedly lied” on his federal tax returns, though Nick Mosby has not been charged with any crimes.
The poll, conducted by OpinionWorks, was completed between April 7 through 11 and has a margin of error of 4.3%. Steve Raabe, owner of OpinionWorks, says Cohen’s lead is “significant” but said Mosby could motivate his base to turn out to the polls.
“It does look, to us, that Zeke Cohen has a pretty substantial lead that would be difficult to overcome,” Raabe said. “The Nick Mosby voter is typically less committed to voting, they are less likely to say they are actually going to come out.”
“When you look at the hardcore primary voter, they’re much more oriented toward Cohen,” Raabe added. “If Mosby or anybody else can motivate voters who are on the fence or are less committed to voting, the dynamics of this thing could change.”
Mosby performs best among voters under 35 years old. 43% of voters in that age range indicated they would vote to reelect the incumbent. Support for him drops off as voters get older, according to the poll.
Meanwhile, Cohen’s support remains almost evenly split among the age groups. 42% of voters between 35 years old and 49 years old indicated they support Cohen, while 44% of voters 65 years old and older said they plan to vote for him.
The racial divide is stark: 61% of white voters indicated they plan to vote for Cohen during the primary, while 9% of white voters said they plan to vote for Mosby. Among African American voters, the support is more evenly distributed – 30% of African American voters said they support Cohen, while 28% said they support Mosby.
Sentiment overall for the city remains split as well among voters. According to the poll, 40% of Baltimore City Democratic voters said they believe the city is moving in the right direction, while 40% said they believe Baltimore is on the wrong track.
“That number is completely different than where it was in 2020. It was 65% in the wrong direction and 17% in the right direction,” Raabe said.
As for what’s driving voters, crime and public safety remain the top issue, as 37% of voters indicated it was their most important issue, though the percentage of people who indicated as such decreased in the last four years.
Strong leadership and personal qualities came in as the second-most important thing for voters, with 15% of the vote. Improvements to the community and transparency and accountability came in tied as the third-most important issues, with 12% of the vote. Infrastructure and transportation and children and education were also tied, with 11% of people indicating it was their most important issue. Taxes, spending, and the budget got 8% support, and poverty and homelessness received 4% of the vote.
Raabe noted that many of Cohen’s supporters also indicate support for Mayor Brandon Scott in his bid for re-election. John Willis, former Maryland Secretary of State and current professor at the University of Baltimore, said voters in Baltimore seem to be willing to give Mayor Scott more time to further his plan for Baltimore.
“Scott’s message is things are getting better, I’m making progress,” Willis said. “I think the poll indicates that city voters feel a little bit more positive than what either the media or statewide feel. The public is looking ahead more than they are looking back.”
But, with nearly 20% of the vote in the race for City Council President, Raabe and Willis indicated turnout could be the deciding factor in the race.
As of April 11, 45,732 Democratic mail-in ballots have been sent out in Baltimore City. Early voting begins Thursday, May 2, and runs through Thursday, May 9. Early voting centers are scheduled to be open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Election Day is May 14.