Posted on 10/10/21
| News Source: The Hill
Experts are split on whether the waning delta surge will be the last major COVID-19 wave to strike the U.S., as Americans grow eager for the pandemic to end after 19 months.
The vaccination rate and decreasing cases in most states have provided a ray of hope that the pandemic could be winding down after its final large wave, some experts say.
But other public health experts caution the unpredictability of the virus suggests another surge could still happen as the country braces for winter — which led to skyrocketing cases, deaths and hospitalizations last year.
Nicholas Reich, a professor of biostatistics at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, said declaring there won’t be another major wave after delta “feels like” a “premature” and “bold” statement.
“Is there a chance? Sure, but I feel like if there's one thing we've learned from this, it's that there's a lot more sort of uncertainty and randomness … in COVID then we've given it credit for so far,” he said.
Some experts, including Reich, pointed out that factors such as the potential development of variants and the unknown endurance of immunity after infection and vaccination could spark larger-scale rises in COVID-19 cases after the country has seen a national decline.
The downturn in cases comes after the delta strain fueled a spike, reaching a seven-day average of more than 175,000 daily cases in mid-September. But on Thursday, that average dropped below 100,000 for the first time since Aug. 4, according to data from The New York Times.