Baltimore, MD - July 28, 20218:30 PM - A very complicated forecast is what we are discussing tonight for Thursday. There is the potential for a significant severe weather event on Thursday with all modes of severe weather possible. That being said, there is much uncertainty regarding severe weather parameters (discussed below). 

There will be lots of shear, possibly over 40kts, and plenty of lift. The question is how much instability will develop. Residual cloud cover from overnight showers and storms to our west may substantially limit our instability, in turn substantially reducing the threat of severe weather. However, IF the sun shines for portions of the day, especially in the morning and early afternoon, we are game on for a significant severe weather event. 

The atmospheric winds support the potential for both supercells and bowing line segments. If the line segments collide and become dominant, this may result in a derecho. If a derecho were to develop, then widespread wind damage would be likely. At this point, we cannot say if one will occur or not, as models do not handle these kinds of situations very well this far out.  

Please understand that while this has potential to be very significant and impactful, there is also a rather high bust potential if lesser instability develops. For now, there is a SLIGHT RISK (level 2/5) for severe weather for the entire mid atlantic region. Damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes are all possible with any storms that develop. We urge you to stay tuned on this potential severe weather event and watch for updates throughout the day thursday. Timing looks to be between 2pm and 11PM.